Phantasmal Rift Mods (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
phantasmods) wrote in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png)
phantasmalrift2018-12-19 11:39 pm
phantasmods) wrote in phantasmalrift2018-12-19 11:39 pm
DUNGEON - BELLMARE ENCLAVE (BELLMARE MOUNTAINS, PT 2)
The shadows are starting to grow very long as you crest his particular ridge - it's not night yet, but it will be soon. In the shadows of the afternoon, with a tall mountain already blocking the sun, lies a snow-covered valley that is different from the ones you've come across thus far in your investigation.
This valley is home to a town, and unlike all the settlements you've seen so far - Incendia, the Telovia mining town, and the manor - it's very much active. There are actual people in the streets, visible from above, going through their days on snow-free streets, bundled up against the cold.
Those of you who asked were told of the handful of people who didn't go into the slumber of stasis as the Fissure conditions of the world grew worse and worse, instead isolating themselves and trying to continue living their lives as they could. Now, it seems, you've found exactly such a group.
Welcome to the Bellmare Enclave, and enjoy your stay.
[[OOC: Welcome to part 2 of the dungeon! For the most part, interaction with the town's NPCs can be handwaved as described on the main information post. Worth noting are the following major things: The Bellmare Enclave isn't expecting visitors, though the people are generally friendly to the new arrivals. They don't know about the time dilation effect of their Fissure - to them, it's only been about eighteen years since the Slumber Plan was put in place and they withdrew from the world. And finally, by a similar token, they have no idea how far the Fissures outside of their own have grown - while it's not uncommon for them to find odd objects from time to time, they'll assume that the characters are just arrivals from other places within their own world, rather than outsiders, until told otherwise.]]
This valley is home to a town, and unlike all the settlements you've seen so far - Incendia, the Telovia mining town, and the manor - it's very much active. There are actual people in the streets, visible from above, going through their days on snow-free streets, bundled up against the cold.
Those of you who asked were told of the handful of people who didn't go into the slumber of stasis as the Fissure conditions of the world grew worse and worse, instead isolating themselves and trying to continue living their lives as they could. Now, it seems, you've found exactly such a group.
Welcome to the Bellmare Enclave, and enjoy your stay.
[[OOC: Welcome to part 2 of the dungeon! For the most part, interaction with the town's NPCs can be handwaved as described on the main information post. Worth noting are the following major things: The Bellmare Enclave isn't expecting visitors, though the people are generally friendly to the new arrivals. They don't know about the time dilation effect of their Fissure - to them, it's only been about eighteen years since the Slumber Plan was put in place and they withdrew from the world. And finally, by a similar token, they have no idea how far the Fissures outside of their own have grown - while it's not uncommon for them to find odd objects from time to time, they'll assume that the characters are just arrivals from other places within their own world, rather than outsiders, until told otherwise.]]
argument
...That--listen, I'm pretty sure math stays math no matter what, and that math doesn't work. It's still a fucking third no matter what you do. Like. The one's empty, so now you've got a 50/50 shot. How does changing your answer make your odds any better? 's like the lady said, the car doesn't move after you've chosen. Not gonna move after you make a second choice either.
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[That's also unusual with people without close connections.]
Anyway, the Monty Hall problem is what it is. Comes from an old real game show, as a matter of fact. Suffice it to say that the host can't open the door you picked if it's wrong, so if you already picked a wrong door at 2/3 odds, they have to open the other wrong door, leaving the one you didn't pick as the winning one.
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Say you choose door 1 to start with. The host can't open door 1, since it's your choice, but he can open either of 2 or 3.
If you were already right, and door 1 is hiding the car, he'll do just that, and you will always lose if you switch.
If the car is behind door 2, the host has to open door 3, and you will always win if you switch.
If the car is behind door 3, the host has to open door 2, and you will, again, always win if you switch.
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No, look, hold on, you're literally proving my point though, there's no always winning, it's still 50-50! You don't know if you were right if you chose 1 and it's behind 1. He has to open 2 or 3. If it's behind 2, then he has to open 3, and if it's behind 3, he has to open 2. You at no point know if it's behind 1, because he already has to open 2 or 3!
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You both throw, but you can't see what your opponent has thrown. They've already decided what it is and can't change it, but you can change it to whatever you like before the results are called.
Imagine your opponent tells you they haven't thrown Scissors. What do you do?
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It's kind of the same thing here - if your initial throw was scissors, with the new information you have a 50/50 chance at winning or losing and you're now on a coinflip, but with the new information you either win or tie by changing to paper or lose or tie by changing to rock.
...again, provided your opponent is honest.
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...Nnno, I still don't see how the odds actually change in that one, but like, I get the idea that if you pick 1, and they open 3, then you know there's a chance it's in 2, because if it wasn't in 2 they would've (or at least could've) opened 2 first. So like, in that case, you're probably better off picking 2, and if it was in 1, then that's just bad luck.
Is this more about probability or more about psychiatry?
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...What if there's a universe where it doesn't work, though? Would that even be possible?
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